Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Musings on the future of Formula 1

The Formula 1 has been the pinnacle of automobile racing for the last 68 years. The best technology, the best talent, fastest cars, the best race organization and the best entertainment all have came from Formula 1 races for the last 7 decades. Rally enthusiasts may argue that the Group B era rallying in the early 1980s were far more exciting than Formula 1. I tend to agree with this argument. Yes, the most important selling point for Formula 1 is that they are the fastest form of facing in a defined circuit and they attract world class racing talent who recognize Formula 1 as the pinnacle of driving skill examination. In the ensuing period, the races have also considerably evolved in terms of the technology, race rules, strategy and marketing. Needless to say, the best minds behind the control of Formula 1 are seemingly well aware of the changing times and have updated the rules and regulations to make the sport entertaining and relevant. For example, in an era of increased awareness climate change and effects of wanton use of fossil fuel, the Formula 1 decided to change the technology regulations to remove refueling between the races to incentivise teams to improve fuel efficiency and fuel management in the races. The changed rules also resulted in probably the biggest innovation in power trains since the entry of Turbo engined cars, namely the development Hybrid powered engines with KERS. Effective management of energy usage and improvement in KERS technology has see the Formula 1 engines smashing the 50% efficiency barrier in 2016. This is a staggering achievement to think that the best of commercial IC engines manage a thermal efficiency of only 30%. Formula cars are now faster than ever, lapping circuits as Monza, Spa at the fastest ever recorded times. The race calendar has also ballooned to 21 races crisscrossing the world and visiting more countries than ever. This is indeed a good period for the sport as such, but clouds are looming ahead questioning the long term viability of Formula 1. There are issues in the form of dominance of teams in the race, the question of money trumping over technical talent, difficult to overtake circuits and cars, boring races where the race proceeds as a procession with pit strategy often the deciding factor in determining the race winner. The technology shift to EV's are also hard to ignore in the long run, the days are numbered for the glorious sounding F1 oil burning engines to disappear from the tracks. 

The year 2021 is planned to be a water shed moment in the rules and regulations. A number of changes in the rules and regulations are set to come on force from 2021 season. The main thrust of the changes are to make racing more exciting, paving for a more equitable field for manufacturers to compete, making the equation of driver skill more relevant being the main reasons.

Formula 1 engines cannot evolve any better than they are currently now, they will inevitably hit the unsurpassable thermodynamic efficiency barrier of the combined system, estimated to be at a few percents higher than the current best effort. The only way forward is to go fully electric, an eminently possible way given the pace battery storage technology is progressing and commercial electric vehicles are kicking the ass of IC cars on drag strips and race tracks across the world. When a time comes when an electric engine car can outrun a conventional engined Formula 1 car, the Formula 1 in its traditional form will cease to be the  fastest and most technologically advanced form of racing in the world, thus reducing its world wide appeal. Given the fact that electric motor powered cars have inherent advantages in torque, power delivery, power density and reliability, it is a matter of time before the battery storage technology improves so much that a race length of energy can be stored within the limits set by ultra light cars of Formula 1. I will go out on a limb to say that by 2035, with mid race change of batteries permitted, we can finally see Formula E cars lapping a race circuit faster than IC engined cars. 

No comments:

Post a Comment